
Poker is a game of skill, strategy, and probability, but one crucial factor that even the best players must contend with is variance. Understanding variance in poker is essential for making informed decisions, managing bankrolls effectively, and maintaining a long-term winning strategy. In this guide, we explore what variance is, how it affects different poker formats, and strategies to minimize its impact.
What is Variance in Poker?
Variance in poker refers to the natural fluctuations in short-term results due to the probabilistic nature of the game. Even if a player makes optimal decisions, short-term swings in winnings and losses are inevitable.
Variance can be understood as the statistical measure of dispersion—the higher the variance, the greater the swings. While luck plays a role in short-term outcomes, skill dominates in the long run.
Mathematical Representation of Variance
In poker, variance can be expressed using standard deviation calculations:

How Variance Affects Different Poker Formats
1. Cash Games
- Lower variance compared to tournaments.
- Predictable win rates measured in big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100).
- More control over bankroll management due to consistent gameplay.
2. Tournaments & Sit & Go’s
- Higher variance due to payout structure.
- Even strong players can experience long stretches without cashing.
- Requires proper bankroll management to withstand downswings.
3. Online vs. Live Poker Variance
- Online poker sees more hands per hour, leading to quicker variance normalization.
- Live poker has lower volume, making short-term swings more pronounced.
- Multi-tabling online increases variance but also boosts potential win rate.
Strategies to Manage Variance Effectively
1. Bankroll Management
Proper bankroll management is the first line of defense against variance. Here’s a general guideline:
Poker Format | Recommended Buy-ins |
---|---|
Cash Games (Low Variance) | 25-50 buy-ins |
Sit & Go Tournaments | 50-100 buy-ins |
Multi-Table Tournaments (High Variance) | 100-200 buy-ins |
Key Tip: If playing high-variance formats, increase bankroll requirements to reduce risk of ruin.
2. Play Within Your Limits
- Avoid jumping stakes too quickly—bigger games mean bigger variance.
- Only move up when consistently beating your current level over a significant sample size.
3. Adjusting Your Playing Style
- Tight-Aggressive (TAG) Play reduces variance by maximizing value bets and minimizing marginal spots.
- Loose-Aggressive (LAG) Play can increase variance but also maximize expected value if used correctly.
4. Mental Resilience & Tilt Control
Variance can be frustrating, but staying emotionally stable is crucial.
- Don’t chase losses by playing outside your bankroll.
- Use mindfulness techniques to handle downswings rationally.
- Take scheduled breaks to maintain peak performance.
Understanding Expected Value (EV) and Variance
Expected Value (EV) represents the long-term average outcome of a decision. Even when making positive EV decisions, variance may result in losses over the short term.
Example: Suppose you go all-in preflop with AA against KK. Your win probability is 80%, yet you will lose 20% of the time due to variance.
Key Takeaway: If you consistently make +EV decisions, variance will balance out in the long run.
How to Calculate Variance in Your Poker Game
- Track your results using poker tracking software (e.g., PokerTracker, Hold’em Manager).
- Calculate Standard Deviation (SD) – Measures the average fluctuation from your mean win rate.
- Analyze your sample size – The more hands you play, the closer your actual win rate will align with expected results.

Final Thoughts on Variance in Poker
Variance is an unavoidable part of poker, but understanding and managing it properly is what separates casual players from long-term winners. By maintaining proper bankroll management, tracking results, and focusing on +EV decisions, players can weather the swings and achieve consistent success in poker.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Can variance make a bad player win in the short term?
Yes, due to short-term luck, weaker players can win despite making suboptimal decisions, but over time, skill prevails.
2. What’s the best way to reduce variance in poker?
Playing low-variance formats, adopting a tight-aggressive style, and managing bankroll wisely are effective ways to minimize variance.
3. How many hands does it take for variance to balance out?
It depends on the format, but in cash games, 100,000+ hands usually give a clearer picture of a player’s actual win rate.
4. Do professional poker players still experience variance?
Yes, even world-class pros experience variance, but they mitigate its impact through proper strategy and bankroll management.
5. Should I change my strategy if I’m on a downswing?
Stick to fundamentally sound play rather than making drastic adjustments. Review hand histories and ensure you’re making +EV decisions consistently.
By mastering variance, poker players can approach the game with confidence, patience, and discipline, ensuring long-term profitability despite short-term fluctuations.